Usually when I write these I cite a few economic surveys to bolster my thoughts. I am not this time. I don’t need to.

NOTE: for those economic wonks like me, I am doing a stand alone post tomorrow and will link it here that will better tie things together.

If you are generally up to speed on GDP predictions for Q2 ’21 and FY ’21, the March jobs numbers, JOLTS and others (or come back tomorrow to get up to speed) the economy is said to be “Roaring 20’s” like through 2022.

Let’s assume to some degree this is true.

Take a pause… some things to know first and then some thoughts I am having:

• This is not a scientific set of data… it shows trends.

• I post Minnesota Recruiter Jobs that are sent to me or that companies have said that if I see them post something then I can add it too. It is not a data set of all the Recruiter jobs that are, have been available.

• 90%+ of the jobs posted are corporate recruiter roles. Infrequently I get a consulting or search firm role to post.

• While labor markets and jobs numbers are lagging economic indicators, Recruiter roles are a leading economic indicator.

• I’ve been doing this a long time and the Minnesota Recruiter community generally knows about this site so I don’t think there is any other “influence” that inflates/deflates the numbers other than demand.

OK… let’s get into this further.

To the image above (click to enlarge):

• The light blue represents 2018: you will note that Spring of ’18 there is a noticeable and sustained increase in the number of Minnesota Recruiter Jobs I posted.

• The dark blue represents 2019: you will note a general sustaining of the elevated number of Minnesota Recruiter Jobs I posted.

• The black represents 2020: you will note it started like the previous two years and then dropped significantly from March to April and then some return to previous numbers.

• The beige represents 2021: you will note, well… it’s obvious. For as bad as March ’20 was March ’21 was good. Really, really good.

Let’s talk trends:

• Summer ’20 there were a significant number of DE&I Manager, Director and VP roles created. The past few months I am seeing a noticeable increase in the number of DE&I Recruiter and related roles created.

• Fall ’20 I started seeing contractor roles being posted. That generally increased into Winter ‘21 and peaked then. I am starting to see a reduction in contractor roles in favor of full time roles.

• At times Winter ’21 I was hearing that contractor roles were seeing 30, 50 and in one case 110 applicants.

• Spring ’21 most roles are full time as companies are feeling more certain that the economy is getting better and at sustained levels.

Where were, are we… general thoughts:

• While this increase in hiring of recruiters is a positive, welcomed and/or joyful sign… we still have a lot of peers and colleagues who are looking for full time work. It may take us well into fall before most have landed in their new role.

• The Great Recession had estimates of between 18%-23% of corporate recruiters who were laid off. I have been in a number of conversations that most believe the pandemic had numbers nearing 30% of those who at some point in the 12-14 months were laid off or furloughed.

• We have lost a number of our peers and colleagues to other types of roles as they had to find other employment during this time. This leads to a shortage of some number.

• DE&I and Tech Recruiters are in highest demand.

Where are we going… general thoughts:

• Many (I dare say most) companies will not see their Recruiting staff, department back to a level of 2019 until the end of 2021. My bet is that companies will be (too) slow to do this and not until they have enough pain of not hiring as fast as they need to will they do so. Silly if you ask me.

• Remote and Work from Home roles will add a wrinkle to all of this. While many Minnesota and Midwest companies are hiring remote they are forgetting that all other regions are too. Example, many West Coast companies are seeking Recruiter and Sourcers all around the country, regardless of location. This will add to the competition companies will have for Recruiters.

• Minneapolis and St Paul as a satellite location… there are a number of West Coast tech companies who have and are growing their team or are opening an office (be it a physical space or as an idea) here. Salesforce, Google, GitHub, Microsoft and Facebook are seeking Minnesota Recruiters to recruit here.

What does this all mean:

• The demand and competition for Minnesota Recruiters is going to get more intense. Much more.

• Most recruiting teams likely will be short staffed, under budgeted and under tooled until the business is feeling more comfortable with revenue growth.

• We will at some point see a number, likely a lot, of new recruiters coming into teams. How they are onboarded, trained and coached will be very important to their success.

• We will see a lot of turnover within companies. As Recruiters see the economy continue to stabilize and grow, some (many) will seek new opportunities.

That’s how I see it.

Know that I know this information is based on my clients, who I speak and meet with, conversations with local/regional/national HR thought leaders and reading A LOT of economic data.

Whether you agree or disagree with my assessment… tell me. I would like to know how you see things. Send me an email => [email protected]

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