“Hey Paul, you skipped the summer hiring post for recruiter jobs. Are you doing one for fall?”
I’ve received a few messages like this the past weeks and the answer is… I’ve been stalling until I knew more.
When I wrote the last update, Minnesota Recruiters In Demand - Spring 2020, at the end of February I had a strong feeling things were going to get “bad”. I was thinking on a scale of 1 to 10 it was going to be a “8” or “9”. I was thinking masks were going to be a thing for some and that those who could easily work from home would slowly shift to doing that. I thought a minor recession was coming.
I had no idea it was going to be a “19” or whatever this has been.
I didn’t see a shut down, shelter in place… the world coming to a near stop.
So… where are we now?
Take a pause… some things to know first and then some thoughts I am having:
This is not a scientific set of data… it shows trends.
I post jobs that are sent to me or that companies have said that if I see them post something then I can add it too. It is not a data set of all the Recruiter jobs that are, have been available.
90%+ of the jobs posted are corporate recruiter roles. Infrequently I get a consulting or search firm role to post.
Labor markets are lagging economic indicators
I’ve been doing this a long time and the Minnesota Recruiter community generally knows about this site so I don’t think there is any other “influence” that inflates/deflates the numbers other than demand.
OK… first about the economy. Here is what I am seeing and know that because of how we all are doing business now I am seeing less people, fewer organic conversations than before. What you may be seeing and feeling may be different than my perspective.
The way I have been describing it is… generally hiring froze. Like in the deep freeze in ones basement. Early June as some of the economy opened up we went from that freezer to the one in most refrigerators. Warmer but still frozen. Today it feels like we moved to the refrigerator. Still frozen but starting to slowly thaw.
Of the V, U, W, L (hockey stick), Nike swoosh (flatter than the L) and “square root”… I am in the “square root” camp. Maybe I should add “stair steps”. Upticks and plateaus.
Again… a disclaimer: some industries and skill sets are hiring faster than pre Covid 19.
I am trying to give a macro view of the region.
I usually link to and summarize reports from Federal Reserve Beige Book, Mid-America Business Index and latest GDP and hiring numbers.
I’m skipping them this time as it is easy to summarize this way: we cratered, saw a significant positive bump in June that has likely flattened in July. That while numbers are better than where they were in Spring (they couldn’t get much worse) we have a longgggg climb back.
Some say “back” is Summer 2021 and others say 2024.
Now to Minnesota Recruiter Jobs…
Unemployment rate for corporate recruiters (beginning of August) is guessed to be 15% on the low end and 35% on the high end. I think we are around 20%-25%.
The graph above shows the cratering based on the number of jobs posted. There’s not a better way of saying it.
Some positive anecdotes:
I posted 9 jobs last week and 10 this week. Highest weekly numbers since the shut down
Consulting and contract roles have started to reappear. That’s a good (cautious) sign
There have been a number of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion roles opened up
Search and Consulting firms have generally held on to their staffs and in some cases been hiring
What’s next… no one truly knows what the health outcomes, election results and economic comeback will be and when. This is going to be rocky. Yes, I realize that is an obvious thing to say.
If you are a recruiter, have a job and been busy… that is likely to continue
If you are a recruiter, have a job and hiring has been slow… I would have my resume and LinkedIn profile ready and be doing all the things the business didn’t have time to do before including work on career pages, job descriptions, refining processes, working with hiring managers on their part of recruiting and building pipelines
If you are a recruiter, do not have a job and are active in your job search… I would be hyper proactive in my networking (I’d rather not wait to see something posted) and I would be reaching out to companies to see if they have interim work to do. Some, many need a little work done. A couple of those combined could get you near full time work
I don’t have an ending or way to wrap this up. Maybe that’s because my last update ended with this:
Short of a world economic or political event… Minnesota Recruiter demand will continue into the Spring hiring season and likely beyond.