NOTE: What follows was written the 3rd week in February prior to the major global concerns of Coronavirus, the Wall Street correction and then fear of pandemic and a resulting global recession. As I post this there is not enough data and information to make further predictions. My last sentence below is a bit ironic/haunting.
When I last wrote about Minnesota Recruiters being in demand, Minnesota Recruiters In Demand - Summer 2019, I was thinking that we finally hit the pause button or a plateau in recruiter demand and the job economy in general. The dreaded “R” word was being kicked around a lot of places as being on the horizon and I was thinking maybe we were going to find a new “normal”. Still hiring but not at the same frenetic pace. Sort of a slow down and busier than usual.
I was wrong.
Things have not changed in a significant way.
As you look at the image above, you see a lot of data points in the bottom 1/3. That represents the number of recruiter jobs I posted monthly from 2010 to 2017.
2018 is the gray color and you see that it breaks out from the previous years data and then… keeps climbing.
2019 is the blue color.
2020 is the black color.
In short, the economy did not slow down further the rest of the year and many thought that was the dip in the economy that was predicted. And if so… not so bad.
Take a pause… some things to know first and then some thoughts I am having:
This is not a scientific set of data… it shows trends.
I post jobs that are sent to me or that companies have said that if I see them post something then I can add it too. It is not a data set of all the Recruiter jobs that are, have been available.
90%+ of the jobs posted are corporate recruiter roles. Infrequently I get a consulting or search firm role to post.
Labor markets are lagging economic indicators
I’ve been doing this a long time and the Minnesota Recruiter community generally knows about this site so I don’t think there is any other “influence” that inflates the numbers other than demand.
Data points (may or may not include revisions):
- 2019 GDP was +2.1% to +2.3% down from +2.9% in 2018. 2020 Q1 estimates are around +1.7% and 2020 year estimates are +1.7% to 1.9%. These are not robust numbers but growth is growth.
Mid-America Business Index:
After a mid year slump the index was over 50.0 3 of the past 4 months.
“The January employment index increased to 53.8 from December’s four-year low of 45.6. In past months, trade constraints combined with the lack of available workers continued to constrain job growth in the region. In December, seven of 10 supply managers indicated that finding and hiring qualified workers was the greatest 2020 challenge for their firms.”
Beige Book January 2020:
U.S. Employment and Wages:
“Employment was steady to rising modestly in most Districts, while labor markets remained tight throughout the nation. Most Districts cited widespread labor shortages as a factor constraining job growth, and, in a few cases, business expansion. A few Districts noted brisk demand for professional, technical, and managerial workers. A number of Districts reported job cuts or reduced hiring among manufacturers, and there were scattered reports of job cuts in the transportation and energy sectors. Wage growth was characterized as modest or moderate in most Districts—similar to the prior reporting period—and there were scattered reports of wage increases from year-end hikes in minimum wages. A few Districts also noted the use of benefits, incentives, training programs, and automation to reduce vacancies.”
“A survey of employer hiring sentiment found more optimism across the District for the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same survey a year ago. However, two other regional hiring indexes that include Minnesota and the Dakotas had softer outlooks, including one that suggested contraction in manufacturing employment. A poll by the Minneapolis Fed of greater Minnesota firms found generally soft hiring activity, particularly compared with a similar poll in mid-2019.”
State of Minnesota Job Growth
- There hasn’t been any. From Dec ‘18 to Dec’19 we gained 3,978 jobs at .1% growth rate. MN unemployment rate is 3.3% (U.S. is 3.5%). The labor participation rate is 70.3% (U.S. 63.2%)
Minnesota Recruiter Jobs Posted By Year:
Now some comments and thoughts (in no particular order) in bite size pieces:
Generally speaking, with an economy still growing… most companies are going to continue to have a difficult time recruiting. Some more than others, sure. Some industries more than others, yep. If a company has had an easy time finding people, that will continue. If a company has had a hard time finding people… that will continue.
While Minnesota and Minneapolis and St Paul continue to rank low in some surveys regarding the regional job market there’s a simple reason for it… we are generally max’d out on workers. We would be adding many more jobs if we had more people who could fill them.
The above point makes me continue to beat on this drum… we need to do a better job retaining people.
I don’t see anyone talking about a recession in the next 4-6 quarters.
What this means for Minnesota Recruiters and companies trying to hire them:
Recruiters are going to remain in demand.
Recruiters need to deliver, get better at their craft, work on their brand, learn new tools and find new places to recruit.
Recruiters who think more holistically about building teams versus putting butts in chairs will find themselves in even greater demand.
Companies desperately need to work on their employer brand, candidate experience and talent planning. Most groups are spending so much time trying to recruit for this month and this quarter that the big picture is never addressed. Keeping them in the month and quarter cycle. And that’s exhausting for everyone.
Short of a world economic or political event… Minnesota Recruiter demand will continue into the Spring hiring season and likely beyond.
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