Is this a hiring pause, the beginning of the slump and slowdown some (me) have been fearing… are we going back to a new “normal”?
I have been posting Minnesota Recruiter Jobs for 10 years and this time last year there had been a major uptick then plateau in jobs I was posting. That is the dark grey line or whatever it is. Then there was another major uptick and plateau at the end of ‘18 and early ‘19.
But the past three months (I’ll call that dark mustard, is that really a color) a noticeable decline.
That has me thinking… a lot.
Some things to know and then some thoughts I am having:
This is not a scientific set of data… it shows trends.
I post jobs that are sent to me or that companies have said that if I see them post something then I can add it too. It is not a data set of all the Recruiter jobs that are, have been available.
90%+ of the jobs posted are corporate recruiter roles. Infrequently I get a consulting or search firm role to post.
Labor markets are lagging economic indicators
I’ve been doing this a long time and the Minnesota Recruiter community generally knows about this site so I don’t think there is any other “influence” that inflates the numbers other than demand.
Now some comments and thoughts (in no particular order) in bite size pieces:
- Recent months jobs number from the State of Minnesota have been flat
- The unemployment rate is still low
- Does this mean we really have come close to “full” employment?
- Yes, I know we
couldshould train those underskilled but employers seem stuck on hiring those “ready” to work
- We know recruiter hiring is a lagging indicator
- Were companies that understaffed long enough to finally feel the pain so the surge in hiring. And now it is done
- Is this a sign of less hiring to come
- Even if the job post numbers continue to decline a bit… we are still way higher than all the years past. We are still in a positive space
- From the Federal Reserve Beige Book - June ‘19 Minneapolis District:
- Employment grew modestly since the last report, hampered by tight labor, with some modest signs of softness. In general, hiring demand remained healthy. Most staffing firms across the District reported somewhat higher job orders in April and early May compared with last year. An ad hoc survey of large Minnesota employers found that half were hiring to increase total employee head count.
- So maybe modest hiring and modest signs of a softness equals a plateau
- GDP was 3%+ last year and if it is 2%+ this year… another sign of a plateau
What does this mean… I think:
- As I mentioned last quarter, we will go from frenetic recruiting and hiring pressure to really busy. This will feel like a slow down but still very busy times with companies trying to grow their teams
- My amateur reading of reports, analyzing Federal Reserve Minutes and CNBC watching has me thinking we are not seeing the beginning of a recession. Yes, slower growth
- Remember back in 2012 GDP was 2% and most companies were freaking out then
- All that despite uncertainty in the world, tariffs and entering another election cycle… maybe we are doing really well given the big picture and don’t yet know it
This is my 4th quarterly report like this and you can see my previous thoughts and predictions:
- Minnesota Recruiters In Demand - Spring 2019
- Minnesota Recruiters In Demand - Fall 2018
- Minnesota Recruiters In Demand - Summer 2018
I am finally correct, would have been sooner or later, that corporate recruiter hiring at those levels was not sustainable.
So… what say you?
Am I spot on, so very wrong or somewhere in the middle?
Leave a comment below or send me an email firstname.lastname@example.org
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