Last year I noticed a freakish spike in the number of Minnesota Recruiter Jobs I was posting. Usually I would have 15-20 jobs posted mid winter to early spring as companies prepared for their yearly recruiting. However, exactly one year ago I had a noticeable increase and it has not ended.
When looking at the graph above, and yes it’s a bit of a mess, you will see that dark gray like line. That’s 2018. It was that much out of the norm.
And now the first months of 2019, I don’t know what color that is, are in the upper left corner. 2019 has continued the momentum.
Here is the raw data going back to 2010. Left column the year and right column total number of jobs posted:
Some things to know and then some thoughts I am having:
This is not a scientific set of data… it shows trends.
I post jobs that are sent to me or that companies have said that if I see them post something then I can add it too. It is not a data set of all the Recruiter jobs that are, have been available.
90%+ of the jobs posted are corporate recruiter roles. Infrequently I get a consulting or search firm role to post.
Labor markets are lagging economic indicators
I’ve been doing this a long time and the Minnesota Recruiter community generally knows about this site so I don’t think there is any other “influence” that inflates the numbers other than demand.
Now some comments and thoughts (in no particular order):
- There has been a lot of talk about a slowing economy. Sure if we go from 3.X GDP to high 1’s or low 2’s… those who recruit are still going to be busy. Maybe a downgrade from frenetic through really freaking busy to really busy. But still will be feeling a lot of pressure.
- The talk about the job creation slowing down and the top end number of jobs being created is tapering is likely true. (see the next point)
- I believe one major reason for slower job creation is that companies have not yet tapped into retraining enough. We could create yet more jobs at a good pace if rather than fighting over the same people we trained/retrained military veterans, those over 50 and those under skilled.
- If we don’t do the retraining and not increase the workforce then… we’ll continue to be hyper competitive recruiting the same people and hiring from each other. Frankly, that’s good for me and my peers. Not so good for employers. And bad for those lower skilled. This would (should) be a good time for them to get some upward mobility in their income. They (we all) are missing out on that.
- If you look at the Federal Reserve Beige Book (April), Mid-America Business Conditions Index (April) and the Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey companies are trying to hire.
This is my 3rd quarterly report like this and you can see my previous thoughts and predictions:
I think most of them have been super accurate except one… I didn’t think the demand was going to continue like it has. I still don’t see how it does but in my 20+ years we have not experienced an economy like this one.
So… what say you?
Am I spot on, so very wrong or somewhere in the middle?
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