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2019 Minnesota Jobs Prediction

Roller Coaster

I tend to stay away from making predictions… I don’t have a crystal ball that tells the future. If I did I likely would not be writing this post right now. When I was a kid I did have a Magic 8 Ball. Those were the best. Didn’t like your answer? Try again. Or do 2 of 3 or 4 of 7.

But I do trends.

I am always reading economic surveys, watching CNBC and Bloomberg, reading company quarterly reports, scanning Glassdoor company reviews, looking at Indeed and Google Jobs. Anything that when combined with other bits of data show trends. Sometimes new data jives with what I have been thinking and other times it shows some change.

Late 2017 while prepping for our end of the year MSP On Deck Podcast we each were going to make a prediction. I knew mine right away.

I went with this… that in 2018 the Minnesota jobs scene and particularly the Minnesota tech jobs scene was going to see greater churn. By churn I meant that we would see more companies hiring, more companies laying off and restructuring and for a variety of factors more people taking a look at what might be available to them in a new job, career or employer.

While I can’t point to a particular survey or chart… I am claiming a win on that prediction.

If you ask corporate and search firm recruiters… most experienced a busier year of recruiting. If you ask managers, directors and those who run teams if they had a harder time retaining people… most will say yes.

Remember the gopher from CaddyShack and how he would stick his head up from underground to see what was going on outside? That’s what a lot more people did in 2018. They all didn’t move but more were willing to take a look.

Now to my 2019 Minnesota Jobs prediction… I’m not taking a big leap with this one.

I am predicting even more churn in 2019.

How can, why may there be more than last year?

  • I think we will see more companies laying off greater numbers of workers. Why? Companies will continue to be impacted by tariffs, Wall Street, fear of the Fed, pressure to deliver results to shareholders and realizing they may have over hired in some areas and need to restructure. The economy in general will likely slow down (some say a little and some say recession) and some companies will freak out a bit (maybe a lot). It’s that simple.

  • I think we will see more companies hiring more workers and faster. Why? Some are taking advantage of the previous item. If “XYZ” is letting some people go, “ABC” will pick some of them up and create roles for them. Some companies are seeing significant growth in their business and they will increase their hiring. Some (many) companies have been adding recruiters to their team. Some companies while letting go a group of employees will also be hiring or expanding other groups.

  • I think we will see more people being like the gopher in Caddyshack. More people will see 2019 as an opportunity to move into a new role, career and/or company.

I do have a few data points to share.

  • The December 2018 Federal Reserve Beige Book for Minneapolis 
    • “Employment grew moderately since the last report. Hiring demand remained robust, but a tight labor supply was restraining employment growth. Job postings tracked by district states were higher overall in October compared with the same period a year earlier. Minnesota and North Dakota saw particularly strong growth in job postings…”
  • The December 2018 Mid American Economy Index headlines with “Labor Shortages Slow Employment Growth”
    • “Over the past 12 months, Minnesota’s job market has been very healthy and improving with the state’s unemployment rate falling from 2.8 percent to 2.2 percent and the state’s unemployed ranks declining by 18,000 workers.”
  • My shows how in demand Minnesota recruiters were in 2018. Note that the December job count was 52.
  • The November 2018 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary shows a continuation of the 2018 trend of more people voluntarily leaving their job for something else.

If you’re not bored with this topic yet I have a couple of things for you to listen to…

December 7, 2018 I was on WCCO AM Radio (CBS) with Roshini Rajkumar talking about the economy, job search and recruiting:

And then we have the MSP On Deck Podcast #24 from late December. You can forward to 48:56

So there it is… more layoffs/restructuring, more companies hiring and more people looking around.

What does all this mean?

You know how before getting in to an amusement park ride you are directed to fasten your seat belt and keep your hands and feet inside the car at all times?

That’s the 2019 Minnesota jobs scene… it’s going to be a wild, unknown, fun, stressful and busy ride.

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