Challenger, Gray and Christmas Announced Layoff Survey May 2009

It is important to note that the Challenger, Gray and Christmas survey is of announced layoffs and not all layoffs. I point to this survey frequently because it shows trends and as we all try and figure out what is going with the labor market one more bit of data to take a look at.

The trend we see here as with other data that is coming out is we are at or likely have seen the worst of the jobs reports although here we see comments (and I agree) that we are not coming out of this as fast as some think or would like to hope.

Is this “good news”? I prefer not as bad news.

So to the trends...

• 111,182 announced layoffs in May is lowest level since 95,094 in September 2008
• 132,590 job cuts in April 2009
• 150,411 job cuts in March 2009
• 241,749 job cuts in January 2009
• 103,522 job cuts in May 2008

Minnesota Jobs Report And Unemployment Rate April 2009

April 2009 saw 9,500 jobs eliminated in Minnesota and the Unemployment Rate drop to 8.1% from 8.2% The U.S. rate was 8.9%

The number of jobs gained/lost the past 12 months (year over year) is -90,200 for April. For March it was -98,100.

18,900 jobs were lost in March so the April 9,500 is a sign to many that while job losses will continue that maybe we have experienced the worst of it here in Minnesota including this quote:

Study Shows 51,500 Minnesota Jobs Directly And Indirectly Tied To Auto Industry

A study called when When giants fall released by the Washington, D.C. based nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank Economic Policy Institute shows that as many as 3.3 million US jobs are tied to the auto industry and as many as 51,500 in Minnesota.

The Economic Policy Institute has a good reputation of putting out fair numbers so until I come across another survey I will be quoting from this one.

Top 5 states hit hardest by total shutdown: Michigan, California, Ohio, Texas and Illinois

Top 5 states in terms of employment: Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee

Minnesota ranks #21 if just GM were to close. An estimated 14,200 jobs would be lost and if a total shutdown 51,500 jobs.

As a percentage of the work force the .5% to 1.9% of state employment ranks Minnesota #28

Included in the survey are the recently announced sales figures for November:

• Domestics sales -40%
• GM -41%
• Ford -30%

Not widely carried are the equally bad sales figures from foreign auto makers:

• Asian sales in US -35%
• Nissan -42%
• Hyundai -40%
• Honda -32%

I am sure it would be hard to quantify but I am wondering if the auto makers closed, what would pop up in their place? I find it hard to believe that the US would produce no cars or that other industries would not evolve from the carnage. That 3.3 million jobs would be lost and nothing to take their place.

I am not suggesting we let the auto makers go quiet but just thinking about all the what if’s.

I am also wondering how current plants could be retooled to take on things like electric cars, batteries, green technologies, etc.

Lots of wondering and thinking on my part. The problem for me I am not seeing much more out of Capitol Hill or Michigan for answers. I would hope and expect they would be much further along in their thought process and have an answer or two.

So far I am disappointed.

As Usual.

Minnesota Recruiters 2008-2009 Job Market Survey Results

As posted on the Minnesota Recruiters group page October 21, 2008

After being a part of many national and local conversations regarding hiring, the economy, and the credit market crisis it seemed to be a good time for me to do a survey of the Minnesota Recruiters group.

The survey is unscientific but does give a good reading on what local corporate, search and consulting firm recruiters are experiencing and how they see the job market into 2009.

SurveyMonkey was used to collect responses. Approximately 1,150 received the survey link. Within a few percentage points the category of recruiter mirrors that of the email list. 338 started and 300 completed the survey between October 8-10, 2008:

Corporate Recruiter	42.90%	145
Search Firm Recruiter	29.30%	99
IT Consulting Firm Recruiter	14.20%	48
HR/Recruiter Consulting Firm Recruiter	13.60%	46

 

Items and thoughts to note:

• Generally it appears that our area and companies are doing better in terms of hiring and optimism than other regions.
• Generally speaking hiring cycles are becoming longer in terms of process, interviews, and back ground checks. Many times the word “deliberate” has been used to suggest companies are being very specific on who they hire.
• Generally speaking most Recruiters say that even if not hiring in an area, if a very talented candidate contacted them there is a good chance they would be hired.
• The Corporate Recruiters who did the survey like the Corporate Recruiters on the email list are 80% in a large company category. It does seem at this time larger companies are feeling the economic issues more than small and mid size companies.
• There are signs from the survey and through conversations that small and mid size companies are continuing to hire at a slightly slower pace. Only a little slow down has been seen with small to mid size companies.
• On a national level conversations are that one need to analyze regions and industries separately as there are many areas of strength and weakness in the economy.
• On our local level this too is seen. Some industries are doing better than others. Saying that there is evidence that at the company level each situation is different. For example, one healthcare company is not hiring IT, Marketing or Recruiter staff but another company down the road is.

Suggestions for the next survey(s) of this kind have been to add:

• Recruiter role as in VP, Manager, Recruiter, Sourcer
• Add 2 categories “Not Hiring” “Staff Reductions”. While the number of those who would have used those terms in their answers for this survey is very small if we continue to see the job market deteriorate then they will be needed in future surveys

If you have any questions, comments, suggestions about the survey please send me an email:

Paul DeBettignies
Co-Founder and Coordinator
Minnesota Recruiters
paul@mnheadhunter.com

 

SURVEY QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

We hired/placed _____ than planned for the 3rd Quarter (July-September):

	Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
significantly more	6.80%	1.20%	4.50%	2.60%
slightly more	18.90%	31.40%	18.20%	10.50%
the same	28.00%	23.30%	6.80%	28.90%
slightly fewer	22.70%	25.60%	40.90%	36.80%
significantly less	17.40%	15.10%	27.30%	21.10%
not sure	6.10%	3.50%	2.30%	0.00%

 

We plan to hire/place ___ in the 4th Quarter (October-December) compared to the 3rd Quarter:

	Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
significantly more	10.60%	14.90%	20.50%	5.40%
slightly more	7.60%	27.60%	27.30%	29.70%
the same	30.30%	25.30%	27.30%	18.90%
slightly fewer	25.80%	19.50%	18.20%	27.00%
significantly less	22.00%	8.00%	6.80%	18.90%
not sure	3.80%	4.60%	0.00%	0.00%

 

I am ___ about the job market for the first half of 2009:

	Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
Optimistic	20.60%	39.50%	25.00%	18.40%
Neutral	42.00%	30.20%	47.70%	34.20%
Pessimistic	25.20%	25.60%	20.50%	26.30%
Not Sure	12.20%	4.70%	6.80%	21.10%

 

I see the most job openings in:

Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
Healthcare	Engineering	Web Developers	HR Generalists
IT	IT	Java	Recruiters (IT)
Sales	Sales	.Net
Engineering	Finance	Open Source
Senior Management		ERP Systems

 

I see the fewest or no job openings in:

Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
Marketing	Manufacturing	Project Managers	Training
HR	Accounting	Business Analysts	Recruiters
Senior Management	HR
Accounting	Executive
IT

I am ___ about my job security:

	Corporate Recruiter	Search Firm Recruiter	IT Consulting	HR/Recruiter Consulting
Optimistic	48.5%	64.40%	56.80%	39.50%
Neutral	32.6%	20.70%	27.30%	42.10%
Pessimistic	12.9%	9.20%	11.40%	5.30%
Not Sure	6.1%	5.70%	4.50%	13.20%

Minnesota College Students To Find A Good Job Market in 2009

Minnesota 2009 college graduates will find another good year of job possibilities according to a recent St. Cloud State University’s Career Services Center survey.

If you listen to local and national media folks (who frankly are a little, err, a lot clueless about employment statistics) you would think the entire country is seeing job cuts, no jobs are being created and no one can find a job.

That is not the case and as usual good news is not reported.

Of the 221 employers surveyed:

• 35% increase hiring
• 58.4% maintain hiring
• 6.5% decrease hiring

Full disclosure, the 6.5% is more than last year but not a big deal.

Salary plans:

• 27.1% plan to increase salary
• 72.9% plan to maintain salary
• 00.0% plan to decrease salary

For more survey information including which industries are hiring, percentages of those with on campus recruiting plans and skills that are most important click MN College Job Outlook 2009.

June 2008 Minnesota Jobs Report

No doubt the Minnesota jobs reports have not been outstanding but since the -10,000 in April '08 that was all over the print and TV news I have not seen much written about the +5,000 gained since then.

Frequent visitors are not surprised to see me say something like this, bad news is news and good news is not news. Some balance would be nice.

What I mean is, when the April report came out one might have thought the sky was falling. They did not mention with the late winter and spring employers had not yet started to hire for the season. They (most) did not mention that the biggest loss of jobs was for those under 25.

Does it suck to be under 25 and without a job? Of course. But looking at things in a macro view it needs to be taken in context.

Also, only a couple of national stories mentioned the higher minimum wage. I do wonder how much that plays a part in this. Surely some small employers are doing more with fewer workers. (This is not a political statement for against but it in some small part it has to be cause/effect)

December 2007 Minnesota Jobs Report

Not much good to say about 2007 when speaking about job creation in Minnesota. The first 6 months saw about 23,000 jobs created. That’s a rough break even number needed with a growing Minnesota labor force and a nice start to a year.

The last 6 months saw that number wiped away.

I have seen the number at -400 and -700 jobs created/lost during 2007.

Tom Stinson, the state's chief economist. says "It seems to me that that's enough of a decline to qualify as a statewide recession in anybody's book," Stinson said.

Dan McElroy, the employment and economic development commissioner, called the report "disappointing and concerning." and "Going backward in the number of jobs is clearly not good news," he said. The numbers will be revised next month and that could mean that conditions actually are worse than they appear now.”

Unemployment rate:

• December ’07, 4.9%
• November ’07, 4.4%
• October ’07, 4.7%
• September ’07, 4.9%
• August ’07, 4.6%
• July ’07, 4.6%
• June ’07, 4.5%
• May ’07, 4.6%
• April ’07, 4.5%
• March ’07. 4.2%
• February ’07, 4.5%
• January ’07, 4.4%
• December ’06, 4.1%

Jobs Created/Lost:

• December ’07, -2,300
• November ’07, +6,900
• October ’07, -6,600
• September ’07, -6,300
• August ’07, -2,000
• July ’07, -7,300
• June ’07, +4,200
• May ’07, +7,200
• April ’07, +500
• March ’07, ???
• February ’07, -1,200
• January ’07, +13,100
• December ’06, -1,600

Over The Year Job Growth:

• December ’07, -700
• November ’07, +2,566
• October ’07, +2,100
• September ’07, +9,800
• August ’07, ???
• July ’07, +19,165
• June ’07, +35,133
• May ’07, +41,515
• April ’07, +36,711
• March ’07, ???
• February ’07, +20,787

All numbers above are seasonally adjusted.

Click Employment & Economic Statistics for more posts on the topic and MN Headhunter for the latest blog posts.

Technorati Tags: Minnesota Jobs, Minnesota Economy

October 2007 Minnesota Jobs Report

UH OH, another month of lost jobs for the State of Minnesota. Statistics can be funny. With this month the job loss was less than September’s and the unemployment rate dropped .2% yet this month feels worse than last month.

Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) Commissioner Dan McElroy:

"The employment data over the past few months are concerning, and we will take a deeper look at what is happening in the state."

He has called for a review by state economists and department experts to look at the trends and make recommendations on how to encourage stronger economic growth.

Construction (gained 600 jobs), and the leisure industry (gained 300).

Job losses were in the categories of education and health services (down 3,200), manufacturing (down 2,700) and professional and business services (down 1,300).

Unemployment rate:

• October ’07, 4.7%
• September ’07, 4.9%
• August ’07, 4.6%
• July ’07, 4.6%
• June ’07, 4.5%
• May ’07, 4.6%
• April ’07, 4.5%
• March ’07. 4.2%
• February ’07, 4.5%
• January ’07, 4.4%
• December ’06, 4.1%
• November ’06, 4.1%
• October ’06, 4.0%

Jobs Created/Lost:

• October ’07, -6,600
• September ’07, -6,300
• August ’07, -2,000
• July ’07, -7,300
• June ’07, +4,200
• May ’07, +7,200
• April ’07, +500
• March ’07, ???
• February ’07, -1,200
• January ’07, +13,100
• December ’06, -1,600
• November ’06, +12,300
• October ’06, +3,300

Over The Year Job Growth:

• October ’07, +2,100
• September ’07, +9,800
• August ’07, ???
• July ’07, +19,165
• June ’07, +35,133
• May ’07, +41,515
• April ’07, +36,711
• March ’07, ???
• February ’07, +20,787

All numbers above are seasonally adjusted.

Click Employment & Economic Statistics for more posts on the topic and MN Headhunter for the latest blog posts.

 

Technorati Tags: Minnesota Jobs, Minnesota Economy

October 2007 U.S. Jobs Report

A pleasant surprise with a more robust addition of jobs in the economy with 166,000 compared to the estimated 80,000.

The numbers from August was increased (minimally) for the second time while the September number was moved down by 14,000 for a net loss of 10,000.

There was a note regarding the wildfires in California:

The Southern California wildfires and resulting evacuations had no discernable impact on the October payroll and household survey estimates.

Just as the August number of -4,000 seemed off at the time so does this months +166,000. Can the financial service folks really be adding that many jobs? I dunno, I doubt it.

The economy while moving along slowly is still moving in the right direction. Slow and steady is good by me.

Average hourly earnings of production and non supervisory workers on private non farm payrolls increased by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, in October to $17.58, seasonally adjusted.

National job gains, previous 13 months:

• October ’07 166,000 (first reported) 80,000 (consensus)
• September ’07 96,000 (revised) 110,000 (first reported) 113,000 (consensus)
• August ’07 93,000 (revised again) 89,000 (revised) -4,000 (first reported) 110,000 (consensus)
• July ’07 93,000 (revised again) 68,000 (revised) 92,000 (first reported) 125,000 (consensus)
• June ’07 69,000 (revised again) 126,000 (revised) 132,000 (first reported) 130,000 (consensus)
• May ’07 165,000 (revised again) 190,000 (revised) 157,000 (first reported) 150,000 (consensus)
• April ’07 122,000 (revised again) 80,000 (revised) 88,000 (first reported) 100,000 (consensus)
• March ’07 175,000 (revised again) 177,000 (revised) 180,000 (first reported) 168,000 (consensus)
• February '07 113,000 (revised) 97,000 (first reported) 110,000 (consensus)
• January '07, 162,000 (revised again) 146,000 (revised) 111,000 (first reported) 145,000 (consensus number)
• December ’06, 206,000 (revised) 167,000 (first reported)
• November '06, 196,000 (revised again) 154,000 (revised) 132,000 (first reported) 110,000 (consensus number)
• October '06, 86,000 (revised again) 79,000 (revised) 92,000 (first reported) 160,000 (consensus number)

National unemployment rates, previous 13 months:

• October ‘07, 4.7%
• September ’07, 4.7%
• August ’07, 4.6%
• July ’07, 4.8%
• June ’07, 4.5%
• May ’07, 4.5%
• April ’07, 4.5%
• March ’07, 4.4%
• February '07, 4.5%
• January '07 4.6%
• December '06, 4.5%
• November '06, 4.5%
• October '06, 4.4%

Click Employment & Economic Statistics for previous posts on the topic and MN Headhunter for the latest blog posts.

Technorati Tags: US Economy, US Jobs

Worker Confidence In Minnesota Drops Again And US IT Workers Moody

The October edition of the Hudson Employment Index is out. The national employment index is up after two down months and almost back to the level of a year ago. Although much lower than earlier in the year.

The Minneapolis and St. Paul Index took a dive for the third straight month. The Hudson Employment Index for Minneapolis-St. Paul showed:

• There was a five-point drop to 24 percent in the number of employees who expected their company to hire in the coming months. This factor has been slipping since registering 34 percent in June.
• Concern around job security rose in October, as the number of worker who indicated they were worried about losing their jobs increased two points to 21 percent.
• Compared to September when 11 percent of the work force rated their finances as “excellent,” just 9 percent made that statement in October. That figure was 13 percent as recently as August.
• The number of employees who said their financial situation was improving fell two points to 32 percent.
• Fewer workers were happy with their jobs in October (74 percent) than in September (77 percent).

The IT Index continues its roller coaster ride of one up and then one down month yet my IT friends are still doing much better than their colleagues in other areas. The Hudson Employment Index for IT workers showed:

• After skyrocketing to 80 percent in September, the number of workers saying they are satisfied with their job dropped in October to 74 percent.
• More workers expected their company to add headcount in the coming months (36 percent in October compared to 34 percent in September).  Additionally, there was a three-point drop in the number of workers who expected their company to cut staff (14 percent).
• Still, one in five workers were worried about losing their job, a three-point increase since September.

Technorati Tags: Hudson Employment Index, Minnesota Jobs, IT Jobs