The dreaded “R” word reared its ugly head last week when the NABE (National Association for Business Economics) released its Q2 2018 quarterly report that their 45 economists saw the economy going the following way:
+2.8 % GDP in 2018
+2.7% GDP in 2019
That OK news. More of the same of the past 10 years. Not great, not horrible. Moving along at decent pace.
Here is the bad news:
Around 50% see a recession by the end of 2019 and early 2020
60%+ see a recession by the end of 2020
These numbers are similar to other recent surveys from The Wall Street Journal and Zillow.
Things are going great for most people so why does it have to end?
Most likely… wages should start rising more and at some point companies will have to raise prices. If inflation goes to high and the Fed raises rates then costs of borrowing increase, home sales will slow and individuals and businesses may slow spending. There are other scenarios like government spending, the Trump tax cuts, overseas issues including tariffs, etc.
Let’s be clear, I am not an economist. I do watch CNBC and Bloomberg all the time and I am fascinated by how an economy works. I watch for trends, numbers, hiring and layoff announcements all the time including a bunch of Google Alerts. I have survived 2 recessions while being a recruiter. They’re not fun for recruiters (corporate, search and consulting). If a company does not plan on hiring then we are the first to get cut. Long before noticeable layoffs are seen and heard about.
I watch this stuff because it impacts my life in every way. And the “Great Recession” gives me night sweats.
Why am I bringing this survey up?
What if it happens… if the shit hits the fan am I prepared, am I ready?
Are you prepared? Ready?
Are your skills current?
Is your employer stable?